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The currency crisis is striking our global financial system hard and fierce. The risk of inflation and hyperinflation is high, which will have massive economic consequences in the long run. Not only poorly managed countries such as Greece and Spain are in deep financial trouble, also the rest of Europe, Asia and the United States feel this crisis. Central banks have to intervene in order to remain out of the red zone. So what does hyperinflation actually mean, what are the main causes and more importantly, what are the consequences?
Hyperinflation
Inflation is an increase of the money supply, which occurs in a normal economic cycle and is perfectly natural. Hyperinflation however, isn't just an increase in the money supply, since it occurs when uncertainty about the future value of a certain currency causes people to start trading it for other products or things which have certain utility value. In other words, people are not interested in paper money and will get rid of it when they see the opportunity. The velocity of paper money through the system hence increases as people will find ways to dispose it. So hyperinflation isn't [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] just the expansion of the monetary base, although the expansion is at the root. In fact, the expansion is fuel, but the conflagration doesn't start till the herd panics.
Causes and consequences
If one wants a thorough understanding of the concept of hyperinflation, one must look at the Weimar Republic. Social unrest is one of the obvious symptoms of inflation, especially when looking at the Weimar Republic in the early 20th century. According to Jim Rickards in one of his famous books, the disease that the Austrian and German financial world seemed [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] to agree on, was itself not containable without international goodwill and a significant relaxation of the obligations of all the countries involved under the peace treaties. German politicians therefore set about relieving the symptoms wherever it was possible. More measures were brought in, so that the government might be seen publicly to be dealing with unethical profit making. It was obvious however, that not only of the great offence caused both by German profiteers and by the foreigners swarming [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] in to take advantage of the exchange rates, but of the desperate, not to say absurd, lengths to which respectable politicians were already being pushed.
In so far as the fall of the mark was due directly or indirectly to the reparation obligations, which Germany could not possibly meet, obligations would send the mark right in the opposite direction. Also the paper-mark prices of many stocks and shares had declined by half or even more, though the prices were still well above [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] the levels of December of the [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] year 1920. Meanwhile the Reichsbank was buying [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] foreign currencies and other assets such as goud kopen and zilver kopen heavily.
The previous fall in the mark had also produced unfortunate results by driving the German population into the shops [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] in an mania of purchasing. Many people in those days thought that their money would soon be completely worthless and that it must be exchanged for goods and tangible products before it was too late and people would not accept paper money any more. Others however realized that the purchasing mania would help the falling rate of exchange to raise prices, and they therefore bought on speculative motives.
The press pointed out that a disastrous slum [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] in trade had to happen when the purchasing power [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] of the population was exhausted, and that [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] meanwhile the poorer classes were suffering. All efforts, however, were in vain to drive sense into the people panicking and articles in the shops could be seen being marked up to higher price day by day. German currency was already of course stigmatized as being worthless paper of no value at all.
Conclusion
To sum up, the Germans have always been keen to spend much money on luxuries such as theatres, cinemas, skating rinks, excursions to the country and so forth. The amount spent during the craze for buying gold must have been very large. The explanation usually given, is that the money was provided out of capital and savings. All the events seen in those days can be seen as a good benchmark against the events we see today. Thus, the phenomenon hyperinflation is very likely to lead to catastrophic financial circumstances, as proven by comparable events.
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